Swine Flu: Pandemic or Panic? Will We See An Autism Baby Boom?

Influenza kills people every year. To date the numbers of deaths from the Swine Flu, H1N1, virus have not been reported as being exceptionally outside the norm. The fear, as I understood official reports, was that a second wave of Swine Flu was coming, one in which the virus will have mutated and become far more deadly. So far at least, according to a new realease from the CDC that hasn't happened, the Swine Flu virus has not mutated as it makes its way through the southern hemisphere.

As reported in USA Today:

"The H1N1 flu strain doesn't appear to be mutating as it makes its way through the Southern Hemisphere, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said today in a briefing.

One of the biggest fears has been that the virus, which first appeared in April in the U.S. and Mexico and which people don't have any built-up immunity to, might mutate into an even more dangerous form. Health officials have been keeping a close watch on the Southern Hemisphere, which is in its winter season now, to see what form of the virus is likely to travel north as fall comes to the U.S. and the rest of the Northern Hemisphere.

Flu viruses are unpredictable, so the fact that this one hasn't mutated is "somewhat reassuring" said Jay Butler, director of CDC's H1N1 Vaccine Task Force."

The failure of the Swine Flu to mutate .. to date .. will not stop the roll out of the massive Swine Flu vaccine buys by most western nations. The health authorities have invested much of their credibility in predicting a swine flu pandemic which does not yet appear to have materialized. Massive amounts of public monies have been invested. The vaccines will be given.

With young children and pregnant women near the top of the priority list for receipt of swine flu vaccines, and with the vaccines still containing thimerosal and adjuvants we will experience an unplanned observational study of whether vaccines are causally related to autism. The IACC pulled an observational study of vaccinated and unvaccinated populations off the table in January and IACC head Dr. Thomas Insel spent much of his credibility in opposing the need or the ethics of such a study. Despite the comments of medical and health professionals like Dr. Bernadine Healy, Dr. Julie Gerberding and Neurologist, professor and successful parental autism vaccine litigant Dr. Jon Poling, and despite the direct observations and cries of thousands of parents the IACC will NOT do a study which might confirm a vaccine autism connection. The Swine Flu vaccination program targeting young children and pregnant women might in fact save many lives as the health authorities continue to maintain. The same program might, unfortunately, provide evidence of a vaccine autism connection.

If another upswing in autism diagnoses occurs in 2011-13 remember the Swine Flu Vaccine program of 2009-10.

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Autism Epidemic Denial : The Flip Side of the Autism Services Obtainment Argument

Reported cases of autism spectrum disorder diagnoses have risen dramatically in the past 15 years. There can be no dispute that the expansion in the definition and diagnostic criteria of autism disorders in the DSM play a significant part in that rise. Another argument often made by those who would argue against any real increase in autism disorders is that the increasing availability of autism related services results in more autism diagnoses as physicians assign an autism diagnosis in questionable cases in order to qualify a child for receipt of those services.

I suspect that such incidents do occur but I have no idea whether "service obtainment" diagnoses occur with such frequency as to have a measurable impact on the numbers of autism diagnoses. I have never seen any reports of studies which accurately measure such an impact.

On the flip side I have never even heard anyone mention whether the provision of services specific to autism could result in children who actually have autism being denied an autism diagnosis as a result of autism service providers placing pressure on diagnosing physicians or psychologists. If it sounds too bizarre to contemplate read the story of Alex Thompson and his family in the UK where Alex's treating physician was subjected to pressure to give Alex a different diagnosis for his autism disorder by the local service provider.

In NHS trust apologises to newsreader after changing son's autism diagnosis the Telegraph reports that the chief physician in the organization responsible for assessing Alex admitted to having withdrawn his autism diagnosis under pressure from organization's education officer. The story also indicates that the physician discharged Alex from her care because his parents, who fought a years long legal battle to have his services restored, had made it impossible to continue.

The Thompson's are certainly not unique in being labelled by officials as difficult because they fought for their child. And according to Alex Thompson's father their situation in fighting for proper care for their child is not unique in the UK:

“We are certainly not the only family to have gone through this. It is happening up and down the country and it has got to be stopped.”

The autism service obtainment argument speculates that the push for autism specific services by parents results in more autism diagnoses being provided in order to qualify children for receipt of those services. The Thompson case illustrates the possibility of a push back factor - autism diagnoses being changed or denied under pressure from service providers seeking to avoid funding of autism specific services.

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